Saturday, December 15, 2007

Blatant Amateur Attempt at Overly Simplified Statistical Analysis: The All-Per-40 Team

So, there are much better statistical analysis out there, obviously.

You can find someone to track pretty much whatever you want.

And yet, I still charge forth, because I'm the one that likes to sing along.

I wanted to take a look at the top players per 40 minutes. Three teams, not based on defensive measures, or popular vote, just Points-Per-40-Minutes plus Assists-Per-40-Minutes plus Rebound-Per-40-Minutes for players with over 500 minutes. Because otherwise Leon Powe and George Carl's kid are on this team. Simple, clumsy, probably bullsh*t, but I wanted to take a look. Here's the first team. All stats thanks to the glory of Doug Stats.

PG Steve Nash (39.00)
SG Kobe Bryant (41.69)
SF LeBron James (42.28)
PF Carlos Boozer (44.88)
C Dwight Howard (41.38)

No real surprises there, right? Looks like the starting five for the All-Star game to me, except, you know, Boozer making first team is pretty unlikely. It really underscores the jump Boozer's made this season, though. Also, three from the west, two from the east. That's pretty even, right?

Here's the second team:

PG Chris Paul (37.51)
SG Manu Ginobli (39.69)
SF Carmelo Anthony (38.14)
PF Kevin Garnett (37.10)
C Amare Stoudemire (39.87)

There's also a serious lack of great pure power forwards this year. I know, I know, Tim Duncan. But Timmy's not having a top year, according to this metric. To let you know how unsatisfactory this thing is? Zack Randolph is above him. Yeah. Anyway, DougStats lists Garnett as a Center, but he plays 4 for the Celts, so we'll hang him with that. Because otherwise he's not top 10, and that... that's just unacceptable. Also, it requires me putting Dirk Nowitski above Garnett, and when I tried to do that, I started involuntarily punching myself.

Here's my third team.

PG Boom Dizzle (37.20)
SG Dwayne Wade (36.00)
SF Josh Howard (34.69)
PF Dirk Nowitski (36.72)
C Yao Ming (36.67)

"Oh, there are so many wingmen. Finding a wing is not that difficult. Small forwards grow on trees." Apparently freaking not. There were seven players I had to skip to get to Mr. Howard. For what it's worth, Nowitski had more minutes and a higher score than Howard, so maybe we're all getting a little carried away with the "Josh Howard is the Mavs' MVP" thing. Meanwhile, it should probably be mentioned that of the players listed above, only Boom Dizzle and Big Baby Jesus cracked top 10 in minutes so far. Given that once you reach that peak point in minutes, it becomes harder to produce per minute because you're on the court for so much inaction, this means that A. Dwight Howard could eat the sun if he wanted to, and B. Caron Butler probably deserves on here with a 32.67 score, given that he's played 896 minutes. So there's that.

Zack Randolph also comes in as the 15th best player on this scale. I'm not sure if that means that Randolph's getting too hard a rap, or if this scale needs to be set on fire, buried in the ground, have the ground infested by radioactive carbon devouring cockroaches, obliterated by some sort of large scale weapon, and the ashes shot into space where it can never be found again, but I'm willing to bet it's somewhere in the middle.

Pssst! Skiles! Yeah, you! Scott Skiles! Listen! Just so you know? Ben Wallace? 5.89 points, 1.98 Assists, 11.17 Rebounds for a total score of 19.04. Tyrus Thomas, who you hate with the all the fury of the seven levels of hell? 14.08 points, 2.37 assists, 10.77 rebounds for a total score of 27.22. Joe Smith? Why, you're right, he does have a higher overall score at 29.13. Thanks to scoring 17.28 points. But he's only got 1.74 assists and 10.11 rebounds. You'll notice Thomas does better on both of those fronts. We're just saying.

One final note of interest. Most minutes in the NBA as of Friday night? Rashard Lewis and Dwight Howard are 1 and 2. Hedo Turkoglu is 9. It's at this point you have to ask, "Van Gundy, you big beautiful bastard, are you trying to kill them?" Might want to try the bench, man. Just a bit.

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